Economic Update 3-09-2026

Economic data for the week included improvements in manufacturing and services surveys, flattish retail sales, and disappointing nonfarm payrolls. Several of these were influenced by weather and idiosyncratic factors.

Equities fell back strongly across the globe, more internationally than in the U.S., with the military actions in the Middle East weighing on sentiment.  Bonds also fell back along with rising yields as higher energy prices stoked inflation fears. Commodities saw strong gains, led by the most dramatic single-week move for crude oil in decades.

U.S. stocks began the week with a fairly benign response on Monday after the prior weekend’s joint U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran. However, Tuesday saw a rapid deterioration in sentiment as attacks on both Iran and Lebanon intensified, along with Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of their main remaining tactical threat tools (via stealthier means, as their navy was decimated). Economic data was mixed, with decent ISM results coupled with a weaker nonfarm payroll report. The key questions in a nutshell: (1) How much damage and/or disruption, at the very least, will be absorbed by oil infrastructure in the Middle East, (2) How long will the conflict last, and (3) What will the new reality look like?

Economic Update 3-02-2026

Economic data for the week included a stronger-than-expected report for producer price inflation, moderate gains in housing prices and construction spending, as well as some improvement in consumer confidence.

Equities were mixed, showing weakness in the U.S., but strength internationally. Bonds gained as investors moved away from risk. Commodities also gained, continuing recent strong trends in metals.

U.S. stocks fell back last week, as tariff/trade announcements from the prior weekend and continued concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence on certain sectors and particular high profile companies continued to weigh on investor minds. By sector, defensives gained on a negative week, as would be expected, led by utilities, health care and consumer staples, all up over 2%, as well as energy, which benefited from recent geopolitical concerns about oil prices. Lagging were cyclicals financials and technology down by roughly -2% each. In tech, NVDIA’s earnings beat consensus, but not by enough to turn sentiment higher, as the bar had been set fairly high. An unmistakable trend has been a shift in investor sentiment away from AI-related tech software toward physical assets, and ‘value’ stocks, some of which has been related

Economic Update 2-23-2026

Economic data for the short week included fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth coming in slower than expectations, stronger personal income and spending as well as industrial production, while several housing metrics were mixed, but remained generally in a weak state overall relative to history.

Equities saw gains globally, with international stocks outperforming U.S. for the week. Bonds were little-changed in the U.S. and mixed abroad with a stronger U.S. dollar. Commodities saw continued gains across the board, especially in energy with intensified U.S.-Iran tensions.

U.S. stocks ended the week higher on a shortened week, with mixed economic data, rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and Friday’s judicial news regarding U.S. tariffs. By sector, returns were led by gains in communications (Alphabet/Google and Meta), industrials, and financials, with gains upwards of 2%. On the lagging side were more defensive areas such as consumer staples (mostly Walmart), health care, and consumer staples, as well as materials. Real estate ticked up slightly, even with interest rates up a bit for the week.

Economic Update 2-17-2026

Economic data for the week included a strong January jobs report, albeit with methodological nuances, flattish retail sales, and weaker weather-impacted existing home sales. Consumer inflation came in cooler than expected, mostly due to lower energy prices.

Equities were mixed, with tech-related declines in the U.S. offset a bit by continued strength in international stocks. Bonds fared positively from movement away from risk and a weaker U.S. dollar. Commodities were mixed, with gold strength and energy weakness.

U.S. stocks fell back again last week, as uncertainty over AI’s impact on software company revenues over time continued to weigh on sentiment for technology-related stocks, in a pattern of ‘sell now’ and ‘figure out the details’ later, not uncommon in equities. By Wed., a stronger-than-expected jobs report was taken favorably by markets, in that the economy remained in decent shape, until the realization of perhaps fewer Fed interest rate cuts, which dampened the mood a bit. Friday’s CPI report coming in cooler than expected helped the mood slightly, but not outweighing the AI concerns. By sector, utilities saw a sharp gain of over 7% as interest rates fell and investors sought save havens, followed by materials and energy. Financials declined by -5%, particularly in the areas of insurance and asset management, also thought to be under threat of being undermined by AI tools. Real estate fared positively, up a few percent, along with lower interest rates.

Economic Update 2-9-2026

Economic data for the week included ISM manufacturing moving back into expansion, ISM services staying in expansion, some improvement in consumer sentiment, but weaker job openings and claims data. Another partial government shutdown paused the release of the January employment situation report until this coming week.

Equities saw a volatile week, but ended mixed, with gains in U.S. value and small cap, as well as international. Bonds saw gains across the board along with the stock market’s volatility and lower rates. Commodities saw gains in precious metals but declines elsewhere.

U.S. stocks were mixed last week, with strong returns from value, where the S&P 500 Value Index gained over 2%, while growth stocks lost an equivalent amount. Sector results reflected that, with gains of 4-6% in consumer staples, industrials, and energy; these offset negative returns 4-5% returns in communications (Meta and Alphabet) and consumer discretionary (Amazon and Booking Holdings). As a sub-group, software suffered its worst week in about four years, down close to double-digits.

Economic Update 2-2-2026

Economic news for the week included the Fed keeping policy short-term interest rates steady. On the positive side, durable orders rose, as did housing prices to a lesser degree, while consumer confidence fell back sharply and producer prices rose more than expected.

Equities were mixed globally last week, with foreign outperforming U.S. Bonds were little-changed in the U.S., but some foreign were helped by a weaker U.S. dollar. Commodities were also mixed, with energy prices rebounding up, while precious metals fell back from recent strength.

U.S. stocks were mixed last week, with major large cap indexes moving in different directions, but weaker results from small caps. A potential government shutdown on Jan. 31 was in the news again, despite appearing as a non-issue for several weeks, having ramped up over concerns over funding for the Dept. of Homeland Security and ICE. By the end of the week, early optimism about the Warsh Fed Chair nomination had been replaced by some angst over potential Congressional delays in the process, as well as some uncertainty about what Warsh’s past comments may mean for Fed monetary policy ahead—as in will it be hawkish or dovish?

Economic Update 1-26-2026

On a holiday-shortened week, economic data included an upward revision for 3rd quarter U.S. GDP, gains in personal income and spending, expansionary showings for S&P manufacturing and services, and some improvement in consumer sentiment.

Equities were mixed globally, with slight declines in the U.S. offset by gains internationally, with help from a weaker U.S. dollar. Bonds were little-changed along with minimal change in yields. Commodities gained broadly, mostly in precious metals and especially natural gas, for weather-related reasons.

U.S. stocks fell back last week, largely due to the inability to fully recover from being down -2% early Tuesday, which represented the worst single day decline in several months. The focus was on the intensification of U.S. ambitions towards Greenland, with an initial announcement of a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland) effective Feb 1, with an added 200% tax on French wine (which tends to be symbolic), coming after French president Macro rejected a seat on the ‘Board of Peace,’ created at the Davos World Economic Forum last week. How these would affect already-existing tariffs was less clear to markets. But, as with several other tariffs, they were viewed as bargaining chips as opposed to being set in stone. That appeared to indeed be the case by Wed., when a low-probability military invasion threat was taken off the table, along with the European tariffs, as the U.S. administration and NATO initiated the “framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland.” Decent economic data later in the week helped a bit, but didn’t make up the brunt of Tuesday’s activity.

Economic Update 1-20-2026

Economic data included consumer price inflation coming in steady, but still elevated, as did producer price inflation. Industrial production and retail sales came in positively. New and existing home sales rose, but homebuilder sentiment continued to weaken. Jobless claims fell, reflecting further normalization after year-end.

Equities fared positively around the world last week, with small cap and international outgaining U.S. core large cap. Bonds were largely down as interest rates ticked higher as inflation remained sticky. Commodities were mixed, with precious metals continuing to lead due to geopolitical considerations.

U.S. stocks fell back on net for the week, with better results from value and small cap stocks, which outperformed large cap growth. By sector, gains were strongest in consumer staples, industrials (defense stocks), and energy, while communications (Meta mostly) and financials (large banks) pulled back by a few percent. Real estate also gained several percent, despite a rise in interest rates across the yield curve.

Economic Update 1-12-2026

Economic data included improvements in ISM services, mixed results for housing starts and the December employment situation report. On the more lackluster side, ISM manufacturing and JOLTs job openings declined.

Equities gained globally last week as the New Year started with optimism and a lack of bad news. Bonds were higher in the U.S. and mixed abroad. Commodities gained in every segment last week, with oil markets in focus after the regime change in Venezuela.

U.S. stocks started the first trading week of the year positively, led by a rally in economically-sensitive small cap names. Economic data was mixed, but perhaps not strong enough to push off several expected Fed interest rate cuts in 2026. By sector, gains of 4-6% in consumer discretionary (Amazon and Home Depot, among others) and materials led for the week, while utilities fell by over a percent. Real estate was up slightly.

The release of the 2026 Tax Rate Schedule is more than a technical update — it’s an important reminder that smart tax planning is rarely about a single year. For investors, retirees, and advisors alike, the real value comes from understanding how evolving tax structures fit into a long-term financial plan.

While headlines often focus on marginal rate changes, the bigger opportunity lies in how tax brackets, income thresholds, and deduction rules influence multi-year decisions. Retirement income strategies, portfolio realization planning, and timing around distributions all become more effective when tax awareness is built into the process early.

For those approaching or already in retirement, 2026 highlights the importance of coordinating income sources — taxable, tax-deferred, and tax-free — in a way that preserves flexibility. Decisions around when to recognize income, how to manage capital gains, and how to align charitable or legacy goals can have a meaningful impact over time.

From an investment perspective, tax-aware portfolio construction continues to play a growing role. Asset location, turnover management, and the timing of realizations can help reduce unnecessary drag and support more durable outcomes across market cycles.

At LSA, we view the 2026 tax framework as an opportunity to reinforce disciplined planning — not reactive adjustments. The most effective strategies are built with intention, aligned across investment, tax, and retirement decisions, and revisited regularly as conditions evolve.

As always, thoughtful planning today can create greater clarity and confidence tomorrow.

Economic Update 1-05-2026

In a light year-end week, economic data included slight gains in home prices, lower jobless claims, and Federal Reserve minutes that again pointed to diverging points of view on the committee.

Equities were mixed for the week, with U.S. down and international higher. Bonds lost ground as yields ticked higher. Commodities were mixed as energy rebounded with geopolitical ties, and metals were mixed.

U.S. stocks fell back during the lighter-volume holiday week, although the full year 2025 provided the third straight year of double-digit above-average returns. By sector, energy led the way, with 3% gains along with stronger oil prices. Most other sectors were flattish, while consumer discretionary was down by -3% (mostly due to Tesla), and technology and financials down by over a percent each. As the year drew to a close, hopes for AI continued to boost sentiment for growth stocks, while cyclical and value stocks appeared to gain some additional traction upon hopes that fiscal tailwinds will keep the economy expanding at a decent pace into the new year, which is expected to flow through to earnings, at least in early estimates.

Economic Update 12-29-2025

Economic data included U.S. GDP for Q3 coming in stronger than expected, while industrial production was flattish, and durable goods and consumer sentiment weakened.

In a seasonally-light trading period, global stocks saw decent gains. Bonds ticked up slightly as yields fell. Commodities rose, led by precious and industrial metals.

U.S. stocks gained a bit during a lighter holiday trading week, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching more record highs, and large cap stocks outperforming small caps. Every sector ended positively, led by a mixed bag of materials (with strength in metals for the year, boosting mining names), technology, and financials, although communications was not far behind, all with returns approaching or over 2% for the week. Lagging was the more defensive group of consumer staples, which was up just a few basis points. Real estate also gained about 1.5% for the week.

Economic Update 12-22-2025

Economic data last week included improved consumer inflation readings (albeit tainted due to a missing month), a stronger than expected employment situation report (also colored by the shutdown’s lack of data), and gains in retail sales, existing home sales, and consumer sentiment. These were offset by a pullback in manufacturing and services PMI data.

Equities were mixed last week by segment in both the U.S. and internationally. Bonds saw gains, as interest rates fell back along with slower inflation results. Commodities were also mixed, with strength in metals specifically and weakness in energy.

U.S. stocks ended the week mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up slightly, while the Dow Jones large cap index and Russell 2000 small cap index down, all based on composition. By sector, conditions were mixed, with gains in consumer discretionary (Tesla and Starbucks) and technology (Nvidia and Microsoft) leading the way, while energy stocks fell about -3% in keeping with weaker pricing for crude oil and natural gas, along with high supplies. Real estate fell about a percent.

Economic Update 12-15-2025

Economic news for the week included another quarter-percent policy interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a seasonal rise in jobless claims, and stronger-than-expected job openings data.

Equities were mixed globally, with U.S. value and small caps among the strongest. U.S. bonds pulled back for the most part, along with higher interest rates across the yield curve. Commodities were mixed, with stronger metals and weaker energy.

U.S. stocks were mixed last week, with a pullback in the large cap growth segment, offset by gains in more cyclical value and small caps, in line with a less hawkish Fed than was initially expected. By sector, returns were strongest in materials and financials, each up over 2%, while communications and technology lagged, declining by -2% to -3% (mostly via negative contributions from Intel and Nvidia). In the latter, investors showed some nervousness after the announcement that the U.S. administration is easing export curbs on fairly high-end H200 semiconductors to China. Higher technology company valuations also appeared to be a bit of a concern, as AI favorite Oracle reported weaker revenue but also higher expected capex spending than markets anticipated.

Economic Update 12-8-2025

The economic data release schedule has begun to normalize, with last week showing gains in personal income and spending, ISM services, industrial production, and consumer sentiment. These offset the weaker ISM manufacturing and ADP employment reports.

Equities fared positively around the world, with Europe and Japan outperforming the U.S. Most bonds lagged as interest rates ticked higher, although there were pockets of gains. Commodities gained in both energy and base metals.

U.S. stocks gained last week, with slower pre-holiday trading, but continued hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this coming Wednesday. By sector, gains were led by technology (Nvidia, but even more so by firms like Salesforce and Adobe) and energy, up by over 1% for the week. Sentiment for artificial intelligence appeared to turn bullish again, in a continued back-and-forth lately between optimism about its productivity potential versus higher valuations for related firms and substantial cash flows spent on infrastructure. Laggards included more defensive sectors utilities, health care, and consumer staples, all of which lost several percent. Real estate also fell back by over -1% along with higher interest rates.

Economic Update 12-1-2025

On a short holiday week, economic data included gains in retail sales and durable goods orders, as well as higher producer price readings, decelerating home prices, and continued weak consumer confidence. However, the recent government reopening meant some data released was fairly stale at this point.

Equities rebounded into gains last week, led by the U.S. over international. Bonds also fared well as interest rates fell back amidst Fed member dovishness. Commodities also saw gains, mostly in metals.

U.S. stocks recovered back into positive territory last week, following negative performance the week prior, and wrapping up a more volatile November where the S&P 500 only gained 0.2%, but continued a string of seven straight positive months. Stocks gained sharply early in the week as odds of a December Fed rate cut were further absorbed by markets. These odds have been largely driven by dovish or hawkish comments from various FOMC members, with the voting odds now tilted again toward easing. The maxim of “Don’t Fight the Fed” can be powerful when markets are in the midst of rate cuts.

Economic Update 11-24-2025

Economic data began to slowly flow again, following the record-long government shutdown, although scheduling remains delayed for a variety of releases. Last week’s highlights included the employment situation report for September coming in a bit stronger than expected, a rise in existing home sales, and improvement in several PMI surveys. However, consumer sentiment remained weak.

Equities fell back globally due to investor concerns about technology stock valuations, potential economic slowing, and an uncertain Fed rate path. Bonds fared well as interest rates fell back. Commodities fell across the board, especially in energy.

U.S. stocks fell back last week, with markets attempting to digest a variety of news. Earlier in the week, Home Depot provided some cautious comments about the health of the consumer, who appeared to be scaling back some home remodeling purchases in light of economic uncertainty, and reduced guidance. The Nvidia earnings report took over the focus by midweek, with Wed. results surpassing expectations, and management noting that AI chip sales were “off the charts,” although sentiment reversed downward along with some AI skepticism. Some of the early-week choppiness was reversed with a strong early gain on Thurs., with a better-than-expected (albeit old) September nonfarm payroll report, which eventually soured hopes downward when a no-cut December looked like more of a possible reality. Friday’s recovery was helped by New York Fed President Williams support of lower interest rates, which sharply raised market odds of a December cut after all back over 50%.

Economic Update 11-17-2025

Economic data remained sparce last week, but as the federal government shutdown ended, coming weeks should see a more normal report flow.

Equities were mixed, with foreign stocks seeing gains, offset by declines in U.S. large cap growth and small cap. Bonds fell back as yields rose across the U.S. Treasury curve. Commodities gained, again led by precious metals, while oil was little-changed.

U.S. stocks were mixed on the week, with large cap indexes up slightly, while the Nasdaq and small cap groups fell back. Early Monday, stocks saw gains as hopes rose over the weekend for a short-term resolution to the government shutdown, which would offer a brief holiday respite. The bill was signed by late Wed., which funds the government through Jan. 30, and included controversial funding for SNAP food assistance programs. However, the longer-term issue of health care subsidies, which is the sticking point between the two parties, has yet to be addressed. Health insurance premiums are expected to soar again in 2026, continuing a pace that ramped up during the pandemic. By Thursday, the lack of available data and depth and length of the government shutdown weighed on investors, fearing additional weakness in the quarter. This was in addition to some diminished excitement for the buoyant 2025 theme of artificial intelligence, as valuations have continued to run on the higher side of consensus expectations for near-term revenues, albeit with still imperfect visibility on AI benefits flowing through to the economy, and impact on labor markets. Overall, we’ve seen a negative reversal for stocks referred to as ‘momentum,’ ‘high beta,’ and ‘low quality,’ which had rallied so sharply since April’s ‘Liberation Day.’ By contrast, stocks with higher-quality fundamentals have tended to lag in relative terms, which is the opposite of their stronger results over longer-term time periods.

Economic Update 11-10-2025

Economic data was again limited due to the federal government shutdown, but included improvements in ISM services and ADP employment, while ISM manufacturing and consumer sentiment fell back to varying degrees.

Equities were largely down around the world, led by a pullback in the technology group. Bonds were flat with little change in Treasury yields. Commodities were also relatively flattish for the week, and oil fell slightly.

U.S. stocks experienced on off-week, as technology experienced the bulk of the declines, down around -4% (led by down Nvidia, Microsoft, and Salesforce), followed by communications. On the positive side, gains were seen in energy, health care, and financials.

Economic Update 11-03-2025

Economic data from the U.S. government remained on hold, while private sources showed housing prices flattening, and continued challenged consumer sentiment. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-percent, as markets already expected.

Equities were mixed globally, with gains and losses dispersed by region. Bonds were largely down in the U.S. upon higher interest rates, and mixed abroad, with a stronger dollar. Commodities were also mixed, with oil prices little-changed.

U.S. stocks saw gains in the large cap area, while small caps fell back, which largely appeared to be interest rate related. were boosted by what seemed to be progress on a U.S.-China trade agreement and loosening of tensions at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia. By Thursday, a 1-year trade truce was announced. While temporary, this included a reduction of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, as well as China’s suspension of rare earth mineral export controls, and their resumed purchasing of U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans. Mid-week, the FOMC decision was seen as a positive, which reversed a bit as Chair Powell noted that a December cut was “far from certain,” pulling back on dovishness a bit. However, by the end of the week, despite strong revenues (from firms like Meta), hints of strong spending on AI for the next quarter and into 2026 had investors on edge a bit with returns on investment yet to be determined, although sentiment for the AI concept remains one of the primary drivers of sentiment. The U.S. government remains closed, now having reached a full month, and threatening the record 35 days from the 2018-19 shutdown, and is now assumed to perhaps trim a full percent off of Q4 GDP growth, although that could be made up in Q1-2026.

Economic Update 5-19-2025

Economic news last week included inflation metrics showing improvement on both a consumer and producer level. Also, data included slightly higher retail sales and housing starts, unchanged industrial production, but weaker consumer sentiment that continues a negative trend.

Equities gained globally, as U.S.-China trade negotiations lowered chances of economic slowing. Bonds were mixed, with yields higher but credit spreads tighter. Commodities were also mixed, with crude oil and industrial metals higher.

U.S. stocks earned strong returns last week, beginning with the S&P 500 rising over 3% on Monday with news from the prior weekend of substantial progress with China on a de-escalation of trade tensions. This included a suspension of earlier tariff rates for 90 days for a continuation of talks, with U.S. tariff rates on China falling from 145% down to 30% (and China-on-U.S. tariffs reduced from 125% to 10%). Cooler inflation also helped sentiment a bit, although many see those prior-month figures as being on borrowed time if/when tariff impacts creep through. Every sector ended positively last week, led by substantial gains of nearly 8% in both technology (led by Nvidia) and consumer discretionary (led by Tesla), while normally-defensive health care gained only a few tenths of a percent (completely due to weakness in UnitedHealth). Real estate also gained about a percent, despite higher yields.

Economic Update 10-28-2024

• Economic data for the week included a decline in overall durable goods, mixed results in housing sales, as well as higher continuing jobless claims, due to a variety of weather and labor issues.  
• Equities declined globally, with higher interest rates and less certainty about central bank rate easing looking forward. Bonds fell back along with rising yields at the longer end of the curve. Commodities gained, largely due to energy, despite a stronger dollar.

U.S. stocks lost ground for the first time in six weeks, as higher interest rates associated with an assumed more drawn-out Fed rate cut cycle and perhaps higher future deficits post-election weighed on sentiment. By sector, consumer discretionary experienced a percent gain (led by a 20%+ return for Tesla, upon better than expected earnings and vehicle sales projections) and a small gain for technology, while negativity was most pronounced in materials, industrials, and health care. Large cap fared better than small cap. Real estate fell about -2% upon the rise in yields.

At the September meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to reduce the Fed funds rate by -0.50% to a new range of 4.75-5.00%. There was one voter dissent, where a member opted for only a quarter-percent cut.

The formal statement was updated to reflect the new easing bias, noting that inflation has simply “made further progress...but remains somewhat elevated.” Also noted was that the committee’s labor and inflation goals “are roughly in balance.” Later in the statement, labor was again mentioned in a reminder of the Fed’s dual mandate in “supporting maximum employment” in addition to its inflation objective. The new quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) put the Fed funds rate expectation at 4.4% for year-end 2024 (down from 5.1% in June), 3.4% for 2025, 2.9% for 2026 and 2027, while the anticipated long-term rate ticked up a tenth to 2.9%.

There hasn’t been this much mystery shrouding a policy change in some time, and surprise announcements have not been common in recent years. Before the meeting, CME Fed funds futures markets evolved toward the chances of a -0.50% cut at as high as 60%, and a -0.25% move at around 40%, after wavering between the two for much of the past month (wisdom of futures markets is correct again). Chances remain high for cuts in November and December, with odds pointing to a year-end rate of around 4.25%. The furthest-out estimate in Dec. 2025 shows the highest probabilities for Fed funds at around 3.00%.

Economic Update 6-03-2024

• For the short holiday week, economic data included U.S. GDP growth being downgraded a few tenths, continued improvement in lower PCE inflation, higher home prices, and improved consumer sentiment.
• Equities were mixed globally, with developed markets down a bit on net, while emerging markets fell further. Bonds were little changed domestically, while foreign markets saw mixed results. Commodities fell back across a variety of sectors.

U.S. stocks fell on the shortened week, but ended May with solid gains to offset weakness from the prior month. By sector, energy and utilities led the way with gains upward of 2%, while technology fell back by over -2% (as a positive week for some stocks was offset by weakness in Salesforce, Adobe, and Microsoft). Real estate also gained, with Friday’s ‘less bad’ inflation news providing a boost.